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經濟學人:疫情對航空運輸業的打擊

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Business

來源于《商業》版塊

Air transport

航空運輸

Flight risk

飛行險

Most airlines are running on empty

多數航空公司現在一無所獲

No industry has been more battered by covid-19 than air transport. With people wary of confined spaces--and country after country imposing travel bans--passenger numbers have nosedived, and with them airline revenues. The estimate of $113bn in lost sales, which the International Air Transport Association (IATA) made on March 5th, already looks rosy. The trade body says that the world's carriers may need $200bn in state aid to stay aloft.

沒有哪個行業比航空運輸業遭受的打擊更嚴重。隨著人們對空間距離——以及一個又一個國家實施旅行禁令——乘客人數和航空公司收入都大幅下降。國際航空運輸協會在3月5日做出的銷售額損失1130億美元的估計已經看起來很樂觀了。該貿易機構表示,全球航空公司可能需要2000億美元的政府援助才能繼續飛行。

Air transport.jpg

Plenty were stalling before the pandemic. Of the 120 airline companies ranked by IATA only around 30 made money in 2017 and 2018. Last year the biggest half-dozen in Europe earned the bulk of the $7bn in profits there, calculates Citigroup, a bank. Many firms had borrowed heavily to buy planes which the virus has grounded. The 90-odd that are in the red have on average six times as much net debt (adjusted for aircraft leases) as EBITDAR (a measure of airline profits). In January the typical carrier had enough cash to cover between so% and 80% of short-term liabilities and about two months of revenues, IATA says. Three-quarters could not cover costs beyond three months-if that.

在疫情大流行之前,很多人都處于停滯狀態。國際航空運輸協會排名的120家航空公司中,只有大約30家在2017年和2018年實現了盈利。根據花旗銀行的計算,去年歐洲最大的6家銀行賺取了70億美元利潤中的大部分。許多公司大量舉債購買飛機,而這些飛機已因病毒停飛。出現赤字的90多個國家的凈債務(根據飛機租賃調整)平均是EBITDAR(衡量航空公司利潤的指標)的6倍。國際航空運輸協會稱,今年1月份,一般的航空公司都有足夠的現金來支付50%到80%的短期債務和大約兩個月的收入。如果超過三個月,四分之三的航空公司將無法支付費用。

Big companies have securedgenerous credit lines from banks. IAG, which owns British Airways, can tap 1.9bnEuros (2.lbn dollars) in revolving credit. EasyJet, a British low cost carrier,has $500m available. Most firms, especially in Europe and Asia, neverthelesshave no choice but to cut flights and sack staff. Cancellations in America area bit less savage while planes are still permitted to crisscross its air space;southwest has cut just one in five flights. If revenues fall by 35% in 2000, Delta,Southwest and United should encl the year with "adequate" liquidity,says JPMorgan Chase, another bank-as long as demand begins to bounce back.

大公司從銀行獲得了慷慨的信貸額度。擁有英國航空的IAG可以獲得19億歐元(合21億美元)的循環信貸。易捷航空,一家英國的低成本航空公司,有5億美元可用。然而,大多數公司,尤其是歐洲和亞洲的公司,除了削減航班和解雇員工外別無選擇。在美國,取消航班就沒那么殘忍了,飛機仍然可以在空中自由穿梭;西南航空只削減了五分之一的航班。另一家銀行摩根大通表示,如果2000年達美航空、西南航空和聯合航空的收入下降35%,那么只要需求開始反彈,達美航空、西南航空和聯合航空就應該擁有“充足”的流動性。

Big companies have secured generous credit lines from banks. IAG, which owns British Airways, can tap 1.9bn Euros (2.lbn dollars) in revolving credit. EasyJet, a British low cost carrier, has $500m available. Most firms, especially in Europe and Asia, nevertheless have no choice but to cut flights and sack staff. Cancellations in America are a bit less savage while planes are still permitted to crisscross its air space; southwest has cut just one in five flights. If revenues fall by 35% in 2000, Delta, Southwest and United should encl the year with "adequate" liquidity, says JPMorgan Chase, another bank-as long as demand begins to bounce back.

大公司從銀行獲得了慷慨的信貸額度。擁有英國航空的IAG可以獲得19億歐元(合21億美元)的循環信貸。易捷航空,一家英國的低成本航空公司,有5億美元可用。然而,大多數公司,尤其是歐洲和亞洲的公司,除了削減航班和解雇員工外別無選擇。在美國,取消航班就沒那么殘忍了,飛機仍然可以在空中自由穿梭;西南航空只削減了五分之一的航班。另一家銀行摩根大通表示,如果2000年達美航空、西南航空和聯合航空的收入下降35%,那么只要需求開始反彈,達美航空、西南航空和聯合航空就應該擁有“充足”的流動性。
China offers hope that it might. The first to be infected, its airlines are lifting off again. In mid-February capacity was down by 71% compared with a year ago, says OAG, a data firm. In the first week of March it was 43% lower, as people returned to the skies lured by cheap fares. Combined with government handouts to carriers, which are mostly state-owned, this may tide them over. Airline bosses elsewhere are banking on similar luck-and largesse.
中國提供了這樣的希望。首先受到影響的是其航空公司。數據公司OAG稱,2月中旬的產能與去年同期相比下降了71%。在3月的第一周,由于廉價機票的誘惑,人們重返藍天,飛機價格下降了43%。再加上政府對大多數國有航空公司的補貼,這可能會幫助他們渡過難關。其他地方的航空公司老板也寄希望于類似的好運和慷慨。

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measure ['meʒə]

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n. 措施,辦法,量度,尺寸
v. 測量,量

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wary ['wɛəri]

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adj. 小心的,機警的

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bulk [bʌlk]

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n. 體積,容積,大批,大塊,大部分
vt.

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flight [flait]

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n. 飛行,航班
n. 奇思妙想,一段樓

 
confined [kən'faind]

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virus ['vaiərəs]

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pandemic [pæn'demik]

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aircraft ['ɛəkrɑ:ft]

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